USDA has lowered yield estimates from October for the 2010 cotton, corn, soybeans and rice crops, thereby lowering projected production for the four commodities.
According to USDA’s Nov. 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, cotton production dropped nearly half a million bales, while rice production declined 700,000 hundredweight. Here’s more from the report.
Estimated U.S. cotton production was lowered 455,000 bales to 18.4 million bales, due to reductions in yields for Texas. Higher production was estimated for the Delta and Southeast regions. Yield is expected to average 821 pounds per acre, up 44 pounds from last year.
Domestic mill use was reduced 150,000 bales to 3.45 million bales in response to sharply higher prices.
Exports were raised 250,000 bales to 15.75 million bales, based on extremely strong export sales to date. Ending stocks were reduced 500,000 bales to 2.2 million bales, the lowest since 1925.
Estimated world cotton production was reduced 1.4 million bales. With supplies insufficient to meet demand, world consumption of 116.8 million bales was reduced 3 percent from last month and 1.4 percent from last season. World ending stocks were reduced 5 percent to 42.2 million bales. The world stocks-to-use ratios were reduced to 37 percent and 36 percent, for old crop and new crop, respectively.
U.S. corn production is forecast 124 million bushels lower as estimated yields declined 1.5 bushels to 154.3 bushels per acre. Feed and residual use is projected 100 million bushels lower, while exports were lowered 50 million bushels, due to higher prices.
Corn-for-ethanol was raised 100 million bushels with record October ethanol production due to favorable ethanol producer margins. Higher ethanol exports and lower imports are also expected to add to corn use for ethanol with high sugar prices limiting the availability of ethanol from Brazil.
Corn ending stocks for 2010-11 are projected 75 million bushels lower at 827 million bushels, the lowest since 1995-96.
Global corn production was reduced 1.1 million tons due to declines in U.S. production. Projected corn production for China was raised 2 million tons based on area increases.
Global corn ending stocks were lowered 3.2 million tons to 129.2 million tons, the lowest since 2006-07, the first year of the rapid expansion in U.S. ethanol production and use.
U.S. rice production is forecast at 241.6 million hundredweight, 700,000 hundredweight below last month due to an 18 pound per acre decrease in yield, to 6,669 pounds per acre month. Long-grain rice production was lowered 500,000 hundredweight to 181.5 million hundredweight, while combined medium- and short-grain production fell to 60.1 million hundredweight.
The average U.S. rice milling yield was lowered 2 percent to 67.5 percent, the lowest in at least 50 years as unfavorable hot August weather reduced both field and milling yields in the South. Ending stocks are forecast at 49.8 million hundredweight, down 2.7 million from a month ago, but up 13.1 million from the previous year.
World rice production is forecast at a record 451.4 million tons, down 1.1 million from last month. Global ending stocks for 2010-11 are projected at 94.3 million tons, a decline of 1.1 million tons from the previous year.
U.S. soybean production is forecast at 3.375 billion bushels, down 33 million bushels from last month. Soybean yield is projected at 43.9 bushels per acre, down half a bushel from the previous estimate. Projected soybean exports were raised 50 million bushels to a record 1.57 billion due to increased global import demand and a record sales pace, especially to China. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 185 million bushels, down 80 million from last month.
Global soybean production was projected higher with increases for Brazil, Argentina, India, and South Africa. Projected Argentina soybean production was raised 2 million tons to 52 million due to increased area. Brazil soybean production is projected at 67.5 million tons, up 500,000 hundredweight from last month.
U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2010-11 were projected 5 million bushels lower this month. Imports were raised 10 million bushels. World production was raised 1.5 million tons for 2010-11. Global wheat consumption for 2010-11 was raised 2.5 million tons. Global ending stocks for 2010-11 were projected 2.2 million tons lower with the largest reduction for China.