The best chance of Texas agriculture receiving enough rain to recharge the subsoil moisture profile and refill reservoirs and lakes will be an El Niño this fall, says John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas state climatologist, College Station.
Unfortunately, early predictions of a strong El Niño may not pan out, he added. In early May, NASA predicted a very strong El Niño, based on satellite images showing patterns of temperature and ocean height similar to those of May 1997, a year of one of the strongest El Niño oscillations of the 20th century.
“But the recent computer model forecasts are not so enthusiastic,” Nielsen-Gammon said. “More likely, we’ll end up with a weak to moderately strong El Niño.”
Currently, crops in many areas across the state are doing well thanks to rains over the last month, according to reports from Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service personnel and the U.S. Drought Monitor.