This NASA satellite image of May 2 was the reason for predicting a very strong El Nintildeo this year which would have likely resulted in a very wet late fall and winter in Texas according to Dr John NielsenGammon state climatologist College Station ldquoBut the recent computer model forecasts are not so enthusiasticrdquo he said NASA graphic

This NASA satellite image of May 2 was the reason for predicting a very strong El Niño this year, which would have likely resulted in a very wet late fall and winter in Texas, according to Dr. John Nielsen-Gammon, state climatologist, College Station. “But the recent computer model forecasts are not so enthusiastic,” he said. (NASA graphic)

El Niño may not be as robust as expected

The best chance of Texas agriculture receiving enough rain to recharge the subsoil moisture profile and refill reservoirs and lakes will be an El Niño this fall

The best chance of Texas agriculture receiving enough rain to recharge the subsoil moisture profile and refill reservoirs and lakes will be an El Niño this fall, says John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas state climatologist, College Station.

Unfortunately, early predictions of a strong El Niño may not pan out, he added. In early May, NASA predicted a very strong El Niño, based on satellite images showing patterns of temperature and ocean height similar to those of May 1997, a year of one of the strongest El Niño oscillations of the 20th century.

“But the recent computer model forecasts are not so enthusiastic,” Nielsen-Gammon said. “More likely, we’ll end up with a weak to moderately strong El Niño.”

Currently, crops in many areas across the state are doing well thanks to rains over the last month, according to reports from Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service personnel and the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Many AgriLife Extension county agents reported good or even excellent crop conditions.

 

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