Cotton Outlook
Cotton has potential to regain upside momentum.

Enrollment of ARC and PLC farms for seed cotton ends Dec. 7

Generic Base farm owners may allocate acres by Dec. 7.

Owners of a farm with generic base acres as of September 30, 2013, and recent planting history of covered commodities, have a one-time opportunity to allocate generic base acres.

The process will be multi-step to allocate generic base acres to seed cotton base acres. Steps for implementing the allocation of seed cotton are:

1.     Determine if a covered commodity was planted on the farm during the 2009 through 2016 crop years.

2.     Identify planted and considered planted (P&CP) history of covered commodities, including upland cotton, on the farm with generic base acres.

3.     Current owner(s) of the farm allocate generic base acres to seed cotton or allocate generic base to seed cotton and other planted covered commodities as applicable.

4.     Current owner(s) of the farm updates the seed cotton yield.

5.     Current producer(s) on the farm elects the applicable program for seed cotton, unless ARC-Individual Coverage (ARC-IC) was previously elected on the farm.

6.     The producer(s) on the farm enrolls the farm.

 

USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) Seed Cotton Fact Sheet. Seed Cotton Base Acre Allocation, Yield Update, Election and Enrollment

USDA FSA ARC/PLC Webpage. www.fsa.usda.gov/arc-plc 

 

Seed Cotton Web-Based Decision Aid.

Seed Cotton Decision Aid. Texas A&M’s Agricultural Food Policy Center faculty, working with USDA’s Farm Service Agency staff, developed an educational tool to help landowners, producers, and others understand how the new seed cotton program may affect FSA seed cotton program payments. 

Important Links:

Dr. John Robinson Cotton Video: Cotton Market and Risk Management (including insurance and policy thoughts) Outlook Video with Dr. John Robinson, Professor and Extension Economist - Cotton Marketing, Recorded November 15, 2018 Link to view: click or cut and paste https://bit.ly/2Tovd0D

 National Cotton Council on Seed Cotton Program.

 Market expectations for the week of November 19, 2018  

U.S. and Global market dynamics appear to be in a very serious state of realignment, which will have significant near and longer-term market implications, and which we will be discussing in coming weeks. 

U.S. 10-Year Treasury. Yield Sideways, Range 2.70 to 3.32. Note the lower yield boundary has declined from last week’s 3.00 – Scenario No.1 U.S. 10-Year Treasury slightly lower if global equities bearish; Scenario No. 2 U.S. 10-Year Treasury slightly higher if global equities strengthen. The intermediate yield trend is sideways with a lower yield bias. (November 16, 2018 – 3.09) Charts (A1-A4)

U.S. Dollar. Corrective Pullback Then Higher - The U.S. Dollar moves sideways to down, correcting some of its upside gains against the Euro. Beyond the expected near-term correction, dollar strength could be a major headwind for U.S. exports into the middle of next year. (November 16, 2018 – 96.33) (Possible Upside 110) Charts (A5-A13)

$SPX 500. Sideways Trading Range being defined, Cautionary Times – Needs to hold above 2670 or additional price weakness becomes problematic. On the positive side, seasonality and global demand is working in favor of this market. Charts (A14-A18)

Global Equities. Sideways, Caution Period of Individual Country Selection – Near term ongoing policy discussions between the U.S. and its economic and trading partners likely limit upside potential of many of these markets. The Global Equity Index (EFA), Emerging Markets (EEM), and Frontier Markets (FM) mostly sideways over the next several weeks. The strongest and most stable index will likely be the global index, followed by the emerging market index, and the frontier index will likely be the weakest index over the next several weeks. Charts (A19-A29)

$WTIC Oil. Bearish, Bottom May Not Be In-Place - $WTIC oil prices need to hold above $54.33 or some significant downside may emerge to $48.13 or lower. Political dynamics and fundamental crosscurrents are challenging, just follow the price action. (November 16, 2018 - $56.68), Charts (B6-B9)

Soybeans. Sideways, Retesting Resistance, Defining Trading Parameters - Soybeans (November 16, 2018 - $8.92 per bushel) to-date have not been able to overcome heavy resistance. Until soybean prices hold above $9.00 per bushel, I remain more concerned about the downside to $8.12. Charts (B10-B13)

Corn. Neutral to Bearish - This market needs to end the week of November 19, 2018, above $3.64 per bushel for me to consider any additional near-term upside. (November 16, 2018 - $3.65 per bushel). Charts (B14-B17)

Wheat. Sideways to up in a Slowly Unfolding Pattern - Wheat prices need to end the week of November 19, 2018, above $5.15 per bushel to indicate a stronger bearish trend is not gaining momentum. (November 16, 2018 - $5.15 per bushel) Charts (B14-B17)

Long Grain Rice. Sideways to Up, Present Range ($10.65 to $11.04 per cwt.) – January rice holding above $10.65 per cwt. would be positive for potential additional upside price strength to $11.04. That said, global deflationary forces, coupled with fundamentals, continue to weigh heavily on this market without significant new business. (Chart B18-B20)

Cotton. Neutral, Global Deflation Forces Weighing Heavy Cotton Prices - Key consideration: If cotton can finish the week of November 19, 2018, above December 77.86 cents per pound, this market has potential to regain upside price momentum, given today’s global economic setting. Finishing the week of November 19, 2018, below 77.86 cents per pound would likely indicate additional price weakness lies ahead (November 16 – 78.29-cents per pound). Charts (B21-B24)

Livestock. Appears Correcting Upside Price Gains - Lean Hogs - Bullish, Feeder Cattle – Correcting Price Gains, and Live Cattle - Bullish.  

Gold and Silver. Neutral to Potentially Bullish - Gold and silver could find some near-term price support, especially if the dollar continues to correct its upside move.  

 Media

UA Video Dr. Thomson on New Technologies for Rice Breeding with a Focus on CRISPR Gene Editing, Dr. Michael Thomson, Texas A&M AgriLife Research, Video Link: https://www.uaex.edu/farm-ranch/economics-marketing/food-agribusiness-webinars/

Bobby Coats is a professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, University of Arkansas System, Division of Agriculture, Cooperative Extension Service. E-mail: [email protected].

Download Slide Show for charts and expanded details, Click Download Link

DISCLAIMER-FOR-EDUCATIONAL-PURPOSES-ONLY

 

TAGS: Crops Outlook
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