USDA releases rice supply/demand outlook

The U.S. 2000/01 rice crop is estimated at 190.9 million cwt, down slightly from last month and a decrease of 15 million cwt from the 1999/2000 record.

The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) revised 2000/01 rice area, yield, and production in the Rice Stocks report released on March 30. NASS estimates 2000/01 planted area at 3.06 million acres, down slightly from last month, and down 13 percent from 1999/2000. Revisions were made by type of rice with planted area of long-grain rice lowered 46,000 acres and area in combined medium- and short-grain production increased 41,000 acres. Long-grain production is estimated at 128.8 million cwt, down 2.7 million cwt from last month while combined medium- and short-grain production is estimated at 62.1 million cwt, an increase of 2.5 million cwt from last month.

Imports are raised slightly based on the pace of imports during the first half of the marketing year reported by the Bureau of the Census.

On the use side, domestic and residual use is lowered 1.7 million cwt because of an upward adjustment in the average milling yield and a downward adjustment in seed use. The average milling yield is revised upwards to 70.5 percent, compared to 69.5 percent last month and 69.6 percent in 1999/2000. Seed use is lowered slightly based on planting intentions for the 2001/02 crop published in the Prospective Plantings report.

U.S. exports for 2000/01 are projected at 83 million hundredweight, up 2 million hundredweight from last month, but down nearly 6 million cwt from 1999/2000. Rough rice exports are raised 1 million cwt to a record 27 million cwt. The pace of rough rice exports through the first 8 months of the marketing year has been brisk, particularly to Mexico, Central America, and Turkey. In addition, milled grain exports are raised 1 million cwt to 56 million cwt. Long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain exports are each increased 1 million cwt to 64 million cwt and 19 million cwt, respectively.

All-rice ending stocks are projected at 24.3 million cwt, down slightly from last month. Ending stocks of long-grain rice are projected at 11 million cwt, down nearly 2 million from last month and a decrease of 4.6 million cwt from 1999/2000.

Combined medium-and short-grain stocks are projected at 11.9 million cwt, an increase of 1.6 million cwt from last month and up 1.5 million from 1999/2000.

The season-average price range for 2000/01 is narrowed $0.05 per cwt on each end to $5.65 to $5.75 per cwt.

Global production, imports, and ending stocks for 2000/01 are raised from a month ago, while consumption is nearly unchanged.

The increase in global production is due primarily to increases in crops in Colombia, Pakistan, and Thailand, partially offset by reductions in Brazil and Indonesia. Indonesia’s imports in 2000/01 are raised 500,000 tons to 1.8 million tons.

Global ending stocks for 2000/01 are raised 0.9 million tons, based largely on increases in India, Pakistan, Thailand, Peru, the

Philippines, and Indonesia.

Rice Situation and Outlook Slide Sets may be viewed at

USDA Announces 2001 Rice Loan Rates by Class:

On April 10, 2001 The Department of Agriculture’s Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) announced that the 2001 rice loan rates for farm-stored rice by class are as follows:

State Long Grain Medium Grain Short Grain

Arkansas 6.66 6.22 6.13

California 6.35 6.06 6.13

Louisiana 6.62 6.13 6.13

Mississippi 6.54 6.09 6.13

Missouri 6.62 6.09 6.13

Texas 6.94 5.91 6.13

National Avg. 6.67 6.09 6.13

For rice stored in commercial warehouses, the whole kernel milled rice loan rates for the 2001 crop are $10.69 per cwt for long grain and $9.69 for medium/short grain. The broken kernel rate for all rice classes is $5.35 per cwt.

The loan rate discounts for grades (per cwt of rough rice) lower than grade #2 are unchanged from those applicable to the 2000 crop of rice. The discounts are $0.30 for grade #3, $0.60 for grade #4, $1.00 for grade #5, $2.00 for grade #6, and $5.50 for sample grade.

Discounts for smut content (per cwt of rough rice) are also unchanged at 5 cents for 0.1 to 1.0 percent smut; 10 cents for 1.1 to 2 percent smut; and 15 cents for 2.1 to 3 percent smut. Rice containing more than 3 percent smut is termed "smutty" rice and is eligible for loan as low quality rice. Smutty rice is considered sample grade. Low quality rice is eligible for loan at 20 percent of the discounted loan value.

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